Apple's September 9 iPhone announcement event could become a negative catalyst for the stock, KeyBanc Capital Markets warns.
In a research note seen by Investing.com, KeyBanc said the event could motivate investors to weigh pricing decisions against the impact of higher costs on demand and margins. KeyBanc added that Apple faces a choice to either raise prices broadly to offset gross margin pressure, which could hurt unit volumes and trigger "sticker shock," or raise prices more selectively.
This could invite greater scrutiny of margins and raise the prospect of further price increases later down the line. The firm maintained an "Underweight" rating on Apple and a $250 price target, against a share price of $324.96 at the time of publication.
KeyBanc models total iPhone 18 lineup builds at around 80 million units across the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from roughly 91 million units a year earlier. The firm attributed most of the decline to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model in this part of the product cycle, with higher pricing and a richer product mix expected to partially offset the lower volumes.
KeyBanc is also expecting a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, raising it to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, raising it to $1,399. The firm expects the foldable "iPhone Ultra" to start at $2,199.
KeyBanc also pointed to a historical pattern of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements, with the stock averaging a 0.72% decline on announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later. Apple's "Surprise and shine" event commences at 10 a.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, September 9.
