Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates

iPhone XR demand has been lower than expected, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has slashed his overall iPhone shipment forecast by 20 percent for the first quarter of 2019. He now expects Apple to move 38-42 million iPhones in the quarter, down from his original estimate of 47-52 million.

iphonexr
Kuo, in a research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors:

We have reduced our 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation by 20% to 38–42mn units (vs. our previous forecast of 47–52mn): We cut the 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation again for the following reasons. (1) Lower-than-expected XR demand. We have reduced our 1Q19 XR shipment estimation to 15–20mn units vs. our previous forecast of 20–25mn units. (2) The increase in orders of legacy iPhone models cannot offset the decline of XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact.

Apple reported sales of 52.2 million iPhones in the first quarter of 2018, which corresponds with the second quarter of Apple's fiscal year, so as few as 38 million units in the first quarter of 2019 would be a significant year-over-year decline.

For the iPhone XR in particular, Kuo has revised his shipment estimate to 15-20 million for the first quarter, down from 20-25 million.

Kuo estimates annual iPhone shipments will fall between 205 million and 210 million in 2018, and based on that, forecasts that annual iPhone shipments in 2019 will decline up to 10 percent to a range of 188 million to 194 million. This would fall below Wall Street's consensus estimate of around 212 million units in 2019.

While this news paints a pessimistic outlook for the iPhone, declining unit sales will likely be at least partially offset by the rising average selling price of iPhones. Apple's latest iPhone lineup is its most expensive yet, with the $349 iPhone SE discontinued and the iPhone XS Max topping out at $1,449 with 512GB of storage.

Kuo:

We believe that the iPhone ASP could at least keep growing YoY until 3Q19, and it will offset the YoY shipment decline. However, most suppliers will face growth challenges due to iPhone shipment decline. We believe that specific suppliers can grow, thanks to the component price increase or the ability to obtain new orders, but the visibility of the beneficiary list will not be clear until 1Q19 because some spec and order allocations of 2H19 new iPhone models are not confirmed yet.

Apple will no longer be disclosing unit sales in its quarterly earnings reports going forward, so investors will have to look towards iPhone revenue to determine how well the handset is selling. If unit sales are particularly bad, then a rising average selling price might not be enough to hide the weakness.

Apple has been aggressively marketing its latest iPhones. On its website, for example, the iPhone XR and iPhone XS take up the entire homepage with advertised starting prices of $449 and $699 respectively. However, each have an asterisk that leads to fine print that says pricing is based on an iPhone 7 Plus trade-in.

iphone xr apple homepage
Apple's earnings results for the first quarter of 2019 will likely be released in May, so we're still some time away from real numbers.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

AirPods Pro 3 Mock Feature

AirPods Pro 3 Just Months Away – Here's What We Know

Friday April 18, 2025 5:16 am PDT by
Despite being more than two years old, Apple's AirPods Pro 2 still dominate the premium wireless‑earbud space, thanks to a potent mix of top‑tier audio, class‑leading noise cancellation, and Apple's habit of delivering major new features through software updates. With AirPods Pro 3 widely expected to arrive in 2025, prospective buyers now face a familiar dilemma: snap up the proven...
CarPlay Hero

Apple Releases Wireless CarPlay Fix

Wednesday April 16, 2025 11:28 am PDT by
If you have been experiencing issues with wireless CarPlay in your vehicle lately, it was likely due to a software bug that has now been fixed. Apple released iOS 18.4.1 today, and the update's release notes say it "addresses a rare issue that prevents wireless CarPlay connection in certain vehicles." If wireless CarPlay was acting up for you, updating your iPhone to iOS 18.4.1 should...
iphone 16 pro models 1

17 Reasons to Wait for the iPhone 17

Thursday April 17, 2025 4:12 am PDT by
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models simultaneously, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 17 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect from Apple's 2025 smartphone lineup. If you skipped the iPhone...
Beyond iPhone 13 Better Triad

Apple's 20th Anniversary iPhone May Finally Go All Screen

Tuesday April 15, 2025 6:31 am PDT by
Apple is preparing a "bold" new iPhone Pro model for the iPhone's 20th anniversary in 2027, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. As part of what's being described as a "major shake-up," Apple is said to be developing a design that makes more extensive use of glass – and this could point directly to the display itself. Here's the case for Apple releasing a truly all-screen iPhone with no...
maxresdefault

iPhone 17 Pro Launching Later This Year With These 12 New Features

Sunday April 13, 2025 7:52 am PDT by
While the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are not expected to launch until September, there are already plenty of rumors about the devices. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models as of April 2025: Aluminum frame: iPhone 17 Pro models are rumored to have an aluminum frame, whereas the iPhone 15 Pro and ...
iOS 19 Roundup Feature

iOS 19 Will Add These New Features to Your iPhone

Tuesday April 15, 2025 7:37 am PDT by
The first iOS 19 beta is less than two months away, and there are already a handful of new features that are expected with the update. Apple should release the first iOS 19 beta to developers immediately following the WWDC 2025 keynote, which is scheduled for Monday, June 9. Following beta testing, the update should be released to the general public in September. Below, we recap the key...
tvOS 18 Thumb 1

Apple Releases tvOS 18.4.1

Wednesday April 16, 2025 10:04 am PDT by
Apple today released tvOS 18.4.1, a minor update to the tvOS 18 operating system that came out last September. tvOS 18.4.1 comes two weeks after Apple released tvOS 18.4, and it is available for the Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD models. tvOS 18.4.1 can be downloaded using the Settings app on the ‌Apple TV‌. Open up Settings and go to System > Software Update to get the new software....
top stories 2025 04 19

Top Stories: iPhone 17 Pro Rumors, CarPlay Bug Fix, and More

Saturday April 19, 2025 6:00 am PDT by
This week saw rumor updates on the iPhone 17 Pro and next-generation Vision Pro, while a minor iOS 18.4.1 update delivered not just security fixes but also a fix for some CarPlay issues. We also looked ahead at what else is in Apple's pipeline for the rest of 2025 and even the 20th-anniversary iPhone coming in 2027, so read on below for all the details on these stories and more! iPhone 17 ...
Apple TV Plus Feature 2 Magenta and Blue

Apple TV+ Available at Significantly Lower Price Until Next Week

Friday April 18, 2025 11:42 am PDT by
Apple TV+ is currently available at a much lower price than usual, but time is running out if you want to take advantage of the offer. In the U.S., new and qualified returning customers can subscribe to Apple TV+ for just $2.99 per month, for three months. Afterwards, regular pricing of $9.99 per month applies. The offer is available in the Apple TV app, and at tv.apple.com, through April...

Top Rated Comments

MacFather Avatar
83 months ago
Deleted.
Score: 70 Votes (Like | Disagree)
cristianvaldez Avatar
83 months ago
The greed in price increases is starting to take a toll. They should lower the prices or people are going to switch to Android or look somewhere else.

Apple needs more innovation and less greed. Go back to Steve Jobs days maybe?
Score: 56 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Pepe4life Avatar
83 months ago
Next up:
iPhone XR for $99*

*after kidney trade-in
Score: 56 Votes (Like | Disagree)
newyorksole Avatar
83 months ago
Jeez. Apple Stores also have easels holding up a poster about “XR starting at $449”. Never seen some type of promo like that.

I really hope they learned their lesson this year. Sheesh.
Score: 49 Votes (Like | Disagree)
usersince86 Avatar
83 months ago
Decrease the price (and/or the size) and sales will increase.

And don't make us trade in a phone.
Score: 48 Votes (Like | Disagree)
newdeal Avatar
83 months ago
Hopefully Tim Cook can have a good idea as to where to go next. Releasing new products at higher prices than the old products and keeping the old products available around the same price didn't really seem like a thing that Jobs did. Generally if they were releasing a computer or a phone it was the same price or lower and then if they kept the old one around they would drop the price. Doesn't seem to be happening anymore.
Score: 28 Votes (Like | Disagree)