Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.

iphone xr product red

iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers—particularly existing iPhone owners—will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries, followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro 34ths Perspective

iPhone 17 Pro Launching Later This Year With These 10 New Features

Sunday March 23, 2025 10:00 am PDT by
While the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are not expected to launch until September, there are already plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models as of March 2025: Aluminum frame: iPhone 17 Pro models are rumored to have an aluminum frame, whereas the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro models have a titanium frame, and the iPhone ...
iOS 18

iOS 18.4 Expected Next Week - Here Are the Release Notes

Friday March 28, 2025 2:01 pm PDT by
With the second release candidate of iOS 18.4 that Apple seeded out today, the company finally provided us with release notes that give a full rundown on what to expect. There's an Apple Vision Pro app, new Apple Intelligence features for notifications and additional language support, plus an Apple News Food feature for Apple News+ subscribers, and several updates that should improve the...
Magic Mouse Green

What to Expect From the Magic Mouse 3

Saturday March 29, 2025 10:15 am PDT by
Apple is reportedly working on a new Magic Mouse. Below, we recap what to expect. The two key rumors for the Magic Mouse 3 so far include a relocated charging port, along with a more ergonomic design. It was briefly rumored that the Magic Mouse 3 would also feature voice control, but that was misinterpreted information. Relocated Charging Port While the Magic Mouse switched from...
top stories 2025 03 29

Top Stories: WWDC 2025 Announced, iPhone 17 Pro and iOS 19 Rumors, and More

Saturday March 29, 2025 6:00 am PDT by
Apple's big developer event is a little over two months away, and rumors about what we can expect to see in Apple's next major operating system updates are becoming increasingly frequent. A public release of iOS 18.4 is also imminent with a number of updates and improvements, although we won't be getting the major Apple Intelligence Siri upgrades that had reportedly been planned for this...
Foldable iPhone 2023 Feature Homescreen

Six Things to Know About Apple's Upcoming Foldable iPhone

Friday March 28, 2025 3:54 pm PDT by
We've been hearing rumors about a foldable iPhone for almost a decade now, but it looks like we might finally see the device come to fruition in 2026. We're going to be waiting many more months for the foldable iPhone, but so far we're hearing good things. Apple wants to make it creaseless. It's taken Apple multiple years to design a foldable iPhone that it's satisfied with because Apple ...
iOS 19 visionOS UI Elements

Apple Codename Provides Clue About iOS 19's Rumored New Design

Sunday March 30, 2025 6:40 am PDT by
Multiple sources have claimed that iOS 19 will introduce a new design with more translucent buttons, menus, notification banners, and more, and there is now another clue that points towards this glass-like appearance. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman today said the new design project is codenamed "Solarium" internally. A solarium is a room with glass walls that allow in plenty of sunlight, so this...
maxresdefault

Apple Releases iOS 18.4 With Priority Notifications, Ambient Music, New Emoji and More

Monday March 31, 2025 10:03 am PDT by
Apple today released iOS 18.4 and iPadOS 18.4, the fourth major updates to the iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 operating system updates that came out last year. iOS 18.4 and iPadOS 18.4 come two months after Apple released iOS 18.3 and iPadOS 18.3. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. The new software can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to...
ipad pro 2024

Gurman: New iPad Pro and MacBook Pro Models With M5 Chips to Launch Later This Year

Sunday March 30, 2025 6:06 am PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPad Pro models with the M5 chip will "launch this year," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In his Power On newsletter today, Gurman said the new iPad Pro models have progressed to an "advanced testing" stage, and he expects mass production of the devices to begin in the second half of this year. If that timeframe is met, the new iPad Pro models could launch...

Top Rated Comments

ChrisCW11 Avatar
85 months ago
If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
AngerDanger Avatar
85 months ago
A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.
*grips iPhone SE* Yeah, I can understand that… *sniffles*



Attachment Image
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Shiro_Simba Avatar
85 months ago
It's nice to see Apple became a trillion dollar company but profit on top of everything is getting ridiculous. I know you got to make investors happy and keep up Wall Street but how much more money these rich people need? I use to hear Steve Jobs words of making a difference on people's lives help mold for a better future. As he said as the technology matures and materials getting cheaper we see prices goes down but he also explains about why initial prices is high due to R&D and promises that eventually prices goes down for the upcoming generation. Now we only see prices are lower if you decide to buy the 2 year old device straight from Apple. I think it's time for Apple to return the favor to people that put them on the top and stop taking advantage of their customers because we still like them. Just sayin!
Jobs would fight the board about pricing , cause in his vision , the products were suppose to benefit all users , not just the elite . That is the problem with Cook, his job is to raise profits , he has no vision for Apple like jobs , slowly Apple is becoming an exclusive brand for the rich. Which is fine , but that was not Jobs vision, he genuinely wanted his products to improve everyone’s lives and tried to keep prices at that level.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
repoman016 Avatar
85 months ago
I'll stick with my 6s. I'm not spending 1000+ so i can have more emoji's
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
kaycrystal626 Avatar
85 months ago
iPhone is just getting too expensive. If I want a iPhone Xs, mostly like I have to get 256GB, and it will cost over $1300 after tax. It's like price of a Macbook Pro.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
thebeans Avatar
85 months ago
('https://www.macrumors.com/2018/10/11/kuo-iphone-xr-to-drive-upgrades-in-china/')


In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.


iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries ('https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/09/apple-introduces-iphone-xr/'), followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand ('https://www.macrumors.com/2018/10/11/kuo-iphone-xr-to-drive-upgrades-in-china/')
“...... the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS ('https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-xs/') and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing.....”. Uhhh..the XR does have a glass back. So....
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)