Production Challenges to 'Delay' Launches of iPhone 5S, Lower-Cost iPhone and New iPad Mini?

Back in January, reliable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo laid out a thorough roadmap of his expectations for Apple's product launches in 2013, pointing to a very busy third quarter for the company with launches for updated iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Mac notebook lines. As recently as last month, Kuo was targeting a June/July launch for the new iPhone models, with a version specific to China Mobile arriving a bit later in September.

Kuo has released a new report today indicating that a number of challenges appear to be pushing back the release of the new iPhone and iPad mini models relative to his previous predictions and general market consensus. As a result, Kuo believes that Apple's third quarter may see much smaller shipment growth than previously expected. Apple of course has not announced its launch plans, so any "delays" are relative to these market expectations and not necessarily Apple's internal plans.

Earlier we estimated that shipments of the new iPhone would begin in July (FDD version) and September (TDD version), while iPad mini 2 would hit the market in August. Currently, market consensus for shipments of iPhone 5S, low-cost iPhone and iPad mini 2 is July, July, and August, respectively. But in light of publicly available information and our knowledge of technological trends, we now think all three products will begin shipments later than our previous expectation and market consensus.

Kuo does not provide a new specific target date for the launches of the updated models, instead laying out a series of three scenarios modeling how Apple's shipments could be affected based on August/September, September/October, and October/November timeframes.

kuo_apr13_iphone_ipad_mini_scenarios
As for details on the challenges facing Apple, Kuo lays out the following issues:

- Fingerprint sensor for iPhone 5S. Work on finding the right color coatings in order to prevent interference with the sensor offers a technical challenge for Apple, and software integration in iOS 7 will also require additional work.

- Color coatings for lower-cost iPhone. Apple's lower-cost iPhone has been rumored to be arriving with a plastic shell in a number of different colors, and Apple's efforts to keep the shell as thin as possible will likely lead to production ramping issues for coatings and surface treatments.

- iPad mini Retina display. Kuo expects the second-generation iPad mini to adopt a Retina display, and technical challenges related to its design and manufacture are likely to slow Apple's release timetable.

As a result of later-than-expected launches, Kuo currently predicts that Apple will see only single-digit growth of total iPhone/iPad shipments year-over-year for the third quarter of 2013, far below current market expectations of 30-40% growth.

Kuo's report comes as Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has released her own report projecting new iPhone launches for September following an iOS 7 preview at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) expected in June. Huberty projects that Apple will show off a new "killer app" such as mobile wallet at WWDC, with the new iPhone and iPad hardware following several months later.

Related Roundup: iPad mini
Buyer's Guide: iPad Mini (Neutral)
Related Forums: iPad, iPhone

Popular Stories

Apple Watch Ultra Night Mode Screen

Apple Watch Ultra 3 Launching Later This Year With Two Key Upgrades

Wednesday July 2, 2025 1:13 pm PDT by
The long wait for an Apple Watch Ultra 3 appears to be nearly over, and it is rumored to feature both satellite connectivity and 5G support. Apple Watch Ultra's existing Night Mode In his latest Power On newsletter, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that the Apple Watch Ultra 3 is on track to launch this year with "significant" new features, including satellite connectivity, which would let you...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 14 New Features

Friday July 4, 2025 1:05 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are just over two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:Apple logo repositioned: Apple's logo may have a lower position on the back of the iPhone 17 Pro models, compared to previous...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Max Battery Capacity Leaked

Thursday July 3, 2025 5:40 am PDT by
The iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the biggest ever battery in an iPhone, according to the Weibo leaker known as "Instant Digital." In a new post, the leaker listed the battery capacities of the iPhone 11 Pro Max through to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, and added that the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature a battery capacity of 5,000mAh: iPhone 11 Pro Max: 3,969mAh iPhone 12 Pro Max: 3,687mAh...
airpods pro 2

AirPods Pro 3 to Help Maintain Apple's Place in Earbud Market Amid Increasing Low-Cost Competition

Thursday July 3, 2025 7:25 am PDT by
Apple's position as the dominant force in the global true wireless stereo (TWS) earbud market is expected to continue through 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The forecast outlines a 3% year-over-year increase in global TWS unit shipments for 2025, signaling a transition from rapid growth to a more mature phase for the category. While Apple is set to remain the leading brand by...
apple silicon mac lineup 2024 feature purple m5

Apple's Upcoming Macs Listed in New Report

Thursday July 3, 2025 9:09 am PDT by
AppleInsider's Marko Zivkovic today shared a list of alleged identifiers for future Mac models, which should roll out over the next year or so. The report does not reveal anything too surprising, but it does serve as further evidence that Apple is seemingly working on new models of every Mac, including the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro. Apple is...
iPhone 17 Pro Lower Logo Magsafe

iPhone 17 Pro's New MagSafe Design Revealed in Leaked Photo

Wednesday July 2, 2025 8:37 am PDT by
The upcoming iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are rumored to have a slightly different MagSafe magnet layout compared to existing iPhone models, and a leaked photo has offered a closer look at the supposed new design. The leaker Majin Bu today shared a photo of alleged MagSafe magnet arrays for third-party iPhone 17 Pro cases. On existing iPhone models with MagSafe, the magnets form a...

Top Rated Comments

lifeinhd Avatar
160 months ago
"Reliable analyst" made me lol.
Score: 11 Votes (Like | Disagree)
D.T. Avatar
160 months ago

* Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
* iTunes 11 - Was Delayed
* iOS 7 - Delayed
* iPhone 5S - Delayed
* Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
* Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed


Anything else I'm forgetting?

Your post was a little late ...
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Rogifan Avatar
160 months ago
Come on Apple! Please, please I hope that this supposed fingerprint sensor is NOT the supposed "killer feature" (a la Siri). Give me a bigger screen and WIDER one while you're at it.

Wow, a bigger, wider screen. How innovative. Nobody has done that before. That'll sure send AAPL through the roof!
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
gmanist1000 Avatar
160 months ago
* Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
* iTunes 11 - Was Delayed
* iOS 7 - Delayed
* iPhone 5S - Delayed
* Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
* Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed


Anything else I'm forgetting?
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
AZREOSpecialist Avatar
160 months ago
Samsung can launch three or four different phone models each year of various sizes and Apple can't even upgrade it's one phone product without experiencing delays?
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
MTL18 Avatar
160 months ago
Phew, thanks for the update.

I was worried that Apple wouldn't refresh at an annual pace and sell products. Glad these analysts helped me out with numbers and things.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)