One of the first analysts to to turn bearish on Apple last year, correctly predicting lower-than-expected revenues, has upgraded the stock to a Buy, giving it a 12-month target price of $540 against a closing yesterday of $428.35.

BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk is cited in Business Insider as suggesting that Apple's earnings per share will be flat or slightly down this year but will climb in 2014.

tim-cook-8.png

He bases the potential growth on four factors: Apple will release a cheaper iPhone, carrier upgrade policies will make it easier for users to buy new iPhones, a new product will come out, and Apple will do something with its cash.

However, he also warns that Apple could miss analysts expectations this quarter, and might even miss its own guidance. That could crater the stock below $400 a share. But after that, he sees things smoothing out and improving for Apple.

The difficulty in forecasting future revenues in a company noted for secrecy around new product launches is acknowledged, but Piecyk includes an assumption that Apple will launch a new category that will generate $5 billion in revenues. Apple is widely assumed to be planning to launch both a smart watch and an HD TV.

Bears will note the absurdity of assuming that any company can simply come up with a $5 billion product while Bulls will call it an overly conservative rounding error for a company generating $200 billion in revenue and which has beaten consensus revenue estimates by billions of dollars in recent years. Both arguments are valid and the harsh criticisms will be merited.

Top Rated Comments

Squilly Avatar
161 months ago
I'm all in if it drops to $400. Been wanting this stock for a while.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
SockRolid Avatar
161 months ago
... The difficulty in forecasting future revenues in a company noted for secrecy around new product launches is acknowledged ...

There. Someone finally admitted it. Apple just doesn't tell anybody what they're working on.
Therefore, analysts are forced to make up even more stuff than normal when they "forecast" apple.

Oh, and by the way, female analysts are 7.3% more accurate than male analysts.
The women, apparently, are more concerned with being correct.
The men, apparently, are more concerned with competing against each other.

http://www2.mccombs.utexas.edu/Faculty/Alok.Kumar/FemaleAnalystsJAR.pdf (http://www2.mccombs.utexas.edu/Faculty/Alok.Kumar/FemaleAnalystsJAR.pdf)

http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v48y2010i2p393-435.html (http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v48y2010i2p393-435.html)

http://www.techrepublic.com/whitepapers/self-selection-and-the-forecasting-abilities-of-female-equity-analysts/1903609 (http://www.techrepublic.com/whitepapers/self-selection-and-the-forecasting-abilities-of-female-equity-analysts/1903609)


... He bases the potential growth on four factors: Apple will release a cheaper iPhone, carrier upgrade policies will make it easier for users to buy new iPhones, a new product will come out, and Apple will do something with its cash.

Yup. Those are all important. But a deal with China Mobile is more important.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jncoanalog Avatar
160 months ago
(...)

Oh, and by the way, female analysts are 7.3% more accurate than male analysts.
The women, apparently, are more concerned with being correct.
The men, apparently, are more concerned with competing against each other.

(...)

Well, if only we could restrict that comment to analysts...
Men seem to always (or at least 99.9% of the time) be more concerned with competing against each other, leaving the difficult task of being correct to the women!
Couldn't we just hand them (women) the world already? :D

P.S.: no irony here, I'm being dead serious...
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
aidanpendragon Avatar
161 months ago
I was just thinking the same thing... I've never owned any stock before though, and I'm 40k in debt from school, so making a risky decision like this is probably a bad idea...

They always say don't buy stocks if you can't afford to lose. Sounds like you can't afford to lose. I know somebody who bought at 550 and is ticked.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Mr. Retrofire Avatar
161 months ago
BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk is cited in Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/btig-upgrades-apple-to-a-buy-2013-3) as suggesting that Apple's earnings per share will be flat or slightly down this year but will climb in 2014.
I do not see, why they should climb in 2014. Apples current strategy is: Zero innovation, more restrictions in the OS-platforms, and so on.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Squilly Avatar
161 months ago
I was just thinking the same thing... I've never owned any stock before though, and I'm 40k in debt from school, so making a risky decision like this is probably a bad idea...

Can't go wrong with Apple. I still think it'll shoot up once it hits its absolute bottom.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro to Reverse iPhone X Design Decision

Monday July 7, 2025 9:46 am PDT by
Since the iPhone X in 2017, all of Apple's highest-end iPhone models have featured either stainless steel or titanium frames, but it has now been rumored that this design decision will be coming to an end with the iPhone 17 Pro models later this year. In a post on Chinese social media platform Weibo today, the account Instant Digital said that the iPhone 17 Pro models will have an aluminum...
iphone 16 pro models 1

Here's How the iPhone 17 Pro Max Will Compare to the iPhone 17 Pro

Saturday July 5, 2025 1:00 pm PDT by
Apple should unveil the iPhone 17 series in September, and there might be one bigger difference between the Pro and Pro Max models this year. As always, the Pro Max model will be larger than the Pro model:iPhone 17 Pro: 6.3-inch display iPhone 17 Pro Max: 6.9-inch displayGiven the Pro Max is physically larger than the Pro, it has more internal space, allowing for a larger battery and...
iOS 26 Feature

Everything New in iOS 26 Beta 3

Monday July 7, 2025 1:20 pm PDT by
Apple is continuing to refine and update iOS 26, and beta three features smaller changes than we saw in beta 2, plus further tweaks to the Liquid Glass design. Apple is gearing up for the next phase of beta testing, and the company has promised that a public beta is set to come out in July. Transparency In some apps like Apple Music, Podcasts, and the App Store, Apple has toned down the...
imac video apple feature

Apple Launching These 15+ Products Later This Year

Sunday July 6, 2025 8:05 am PDT by
The calendar has turned to July, meaning that 2025 is now more than half over. And while the summer months are often quiet for Apple, the company still has more than a dozen products coming later this year, according to rumors. Below, we have outlined at least 15 new Apple products that are expected to launch later this year, along with key rumored features for each. iPhone 17 Series iPho...
iPhone Car Key Kia

Here's Which Vehicles Offer iPhone Car Keys

Sunday July 6, 2025 3:03 pm PDT by
In 2020, Apple added a digital car key feature to its Wallet app, allowing users to lock, unlock, and start a compatible vehicle with an iPhone or Apple Watch. The feature is currently offered by select automakers, including Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and a handful of others, and it is set to expand further. Apple has a web page with a list of vehicle models that ...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 14 New Features

Friday July 4, 2025 1:05 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are just over two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:Apple logo repositioned: Apple's logo may have a lower position on the back of the iPhone 17 Pro models, compared to previous...
iphone 17 pro render majin bu

New iPhone 17 Pro Renders Highlight Apple Logo and MagSafe Design Changes

Sunday July 6, 2025 8:43 pm PDT by
New renders today provide the best look yet relocated Apple logo and redesigned MagSafe magnet array of the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max. Image via Majin Bu. Several of the design changes coming to the iPhone 17 Pro model have been rumored for some time, such as the elongated camera bump that spans the full width of the device, with the LiDAR Scanner and flash moving to the right side. ...
iPhone 14 Pro Dynamic Island

iPhone 17 Models Rumored to Feature Redesigned Dynamic Island

Monday July 7, 2025 7:38 am PDT by
iPhone 17 models will feature a redesigned Dynamic Island user interface, according to a post today from Digital Chat Station, an account with more than three million followers on Chinese social media platform Weibo. The account has accurately leaked some information regarding future Apple products in the past. The account did not share any specific details about the alleged changes that are ...
apple account card feature

Apple Account Card Expanding to More Countries

Tuesday July 8, 2025 7:34 pm PDT by
Apple is expanding the ability to add an Apple Account Card to the Wallet app to more countries, according to backend Apple Pay changes. With iOS 15.5, Apple updated the Wallet app to allow users to add an Apple Account Card, which displays the Apple credit balance associated with an Apple ID. If you receive an Apple gift card, for example, it is added to an Apple Account that is also...