RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

rbc iphone 5 demand
Customer likelihood of purchasing iPhone 5 ahead of launch compared to iPhone 4

Unsurprisingly, potential launches of the iPhone 5 on Sprint and T-Mobile USA are also having a favorable effect on customer demand at those carriers, with 50-55% of customers at both carriers reporting that bringing the iPhone 5 to their carrier would make them "significantly" or "somewhat" more likely to purchase the device. Of the two carriers, Sprint has seen the stronger rumors of an iPhone 5 debut, although hints of an iPhone 5 for T-Mobile USA have also been circulating.

rbc sprint tmobile iphone 5 likelihood
Effect of iPhone 5 coming to Sprint or T-Mobile USA on customer purchasing plans

RBC's survey also takes a look at the tablet market, where Apple continues to hold a dominating position with 85% of all customers planning to purchase a tablet opting for an iPad. Samsung's Galaxy Tab takes second place with 4% of planned purchases.

Based on the strong survey results, RBC is raising its holiday quarter iPhone estimates from 24.4 million units to 27 million units and pushing total fiscal 2012 estimates from 105 million units to 110 million units. RBC is also raising its iPad estimates for the current back-to-school quarter from 10.5 million units to 12.5 million units as Apple continues to dominate the tablet market.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Neutral)
Related Forums: iPad, iPhone

Top Rated Comments

spazzcat Avatar
185 months ago
I know of four or five people waiting for iPhone 5 to drop their Doid or blackberry. They ask me everyday, any news on IP5?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
iAppleseed Avatar
185 months ago
Apple, release the iPhone 5. I'm tired of waiting. And the new features better be good or else.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macnisse Avatar
185 months ago
More carriers + longer refesh cycle = increased demand.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jb510 Avatar
185 months ago
I for one have no plans on replacing my iPhone 4 with a 4s/5... Unless it's released on Tmo In which case I'll switch instantly and tell AT&T to go to hell.

It's still hard to figure out what's going on, if the hardware is 4s then it seems odd to have had a longer upgrade cycle, but a 4s seems more likely since the focus is on iOS 5 and iCloud right now, not hardware. A fall release
date for iphone/ipad always made more sense to me though to capitalize on the holiday season.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BC2009 Avatar
185 months ago
I think this survey would be more interesting after Apple announced iPhone 5, but before they release it. Many folks don't even know a new iPhone is due to be released.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Epic Xbox Revie Avatar
185 months ago
Well duh.
Score: 0 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

streaming black friday 2025

Black Friday Streaming Deals Include Big Savings on Disney+, Hulu, Apple TV, and More

Monday November 24, 2025 8:03 am PST by
We've been focusing on deals on physical products over the past few weeks, but Black Friday is also a great time of year to purchase a streaming membership. Some of the biggest services have great discounts for new and select returning members this week, including Disney+, Hulu, Paramount+, Peacock, and more. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When you click a...
Apple Foldable Thumb

Foldable iPhone to Debut These Three Breakthrough Features

Tuesday November 25, 2025 7:09 am PST by
Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models in fall 2026, and it's shaping up to include three standout features that could set it apart from the competition. The book-style foldable will reportedly feature an industry-first 24-megapixel under-display camera built into the inner display, according to a recent JP Morgan equity research report. That...
General Black Friday Deals 25 Red

Apple Black Friday Deals Available Now on AirPods, iPads, Accessories, and More

Friday November 21, 2025 8:48 am PST by
We're only a few days away from Black Friday, which will take place on Friday, November 28 in 2025. As always, this will be the best time of the year to shop for great deals, including popular Apple products like AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and more. In this article, the majority of the discounts will be found on Amazon. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When...
General Apps Messages Redux

Singapore Orders Changes to iMessage by December

Tuesday November 25, 2025 6:39 am PST by
Singapore has ordered Apple to block or filter messages on iMessage that impersonate government agencies, requiring the company to implement new anti-spoofing protections by December as part of efforts to curb rising online scams, the Straits Times reports. Singapore's Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said that it had issued an Implementation Directive to Apple under the Online Criminal Harms...
iPhone Pocket Short

iPhone Pocket is Now Completely Sold Out Worldwide

Tuesday November 25, 2025 7:16 am PST by
Apple recently teamed up with Japanese fashion brand ISSEY MIYAKE to create the iPhone Pocket, a limited-edition knitted accessory designed to carry an iPhone. However, it is now completely sold out in all countries where it was released. iPhone Pocket became available to order on Apple's online store starting Friday, November 14, in the United States, France, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, ...
maxresdefault

The MacRumors Show: iPhone 18 Pro Looks Like a Huge Upgrade

Friday November 21, 2025 9:10 am PST by
On this week's episode of The MacRumors Show, we talk through all of the new features and improvements expected to come to next year's iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max models. Subscribe to The MacRumors Show YouTube channel for more videos Apple's next-generation iPhones are less than ten months away and we already have a good idea about what to expect based on corroborated leaks, rumors,...
iOS 26

iOS 26.2 Adds These New Features to Your iPhone

Thursday November 20, 2025 10:50 am PST by
iOS 26.2 is currently in beta testing. The upcoming update includes a handful of new features and changes on the iPhone, including a new Liquid Glass slider for the Lock Screen's clock, offline lyrics for Apple Music, and more. In a recent press release, Apple confirmed that iOS 26.2 will be released to all users in December, but it did not provide a specific release date. Keep reading...
iOS 26 on Three iPhones

iOS 27 Will Reportedly Have Two Key Upgrades

Sunday November 23, 2025 8:48 am PST by
iOS 27 will reportedly have two major elements: quality improvements and new AI features. In his Power On newsletter today, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that iOS 27 will be similar to Mac OS X Snow Leopard, in the sense that Apple is focused on improving "quality and underlying performance" over adding new features. Gurman said there is one exception to this rule, though, as he expects...
apple news banner

Apple News Loses CNN

Monday November 24, 2025 7:56 am PST by
American multinational news company CNN has abruptly pulled its content from Apple News, Semafor reports. CNN quietly removed its stories from Apple News over the weekend and there is no longer a feed from the network to subscribe to in the app. This effectively ends its distribution agreement with Apple while the two sides negotiate new terms. Discussions are apparently ongoing and CNN's...