Jobs Says Apple TV App Store Could Launch When the Time is Right

When is the time right?

IMHO, the time is right, right *now*, if they want AppleTV to really take off. But that said, there sure is a lot of armchair Apple management that takes place around here.

Steve Jobs knows FAR better than any of us how many projects his company can take on at one time, without getting overloaded. He likely doesn't think it's worth taking people away from other projects they've got going right now (such as that iOS 4 for iPad?) to develop an online AppleTV section of the store.

IMHO, many of Apple's products are really only successful in the marketplace because they took the time to hone them before pushing them out on store shelves. Unfortunately, most Apple product users seem to be impatient and expect these things to keep churning out of Cuppertino at a breakneck pace.

The new iteration of the AppleTV is, seemingly, just another "baby step" Apples wants to take right now. I don't think they've really expressed interest in dominating the home theater/media center market -- or else you'd see much more activity in that area. In a way, it makes a lot of sense though. You didn't see Apple rush a cellphone to market either. They waited for YEARS, letting other companies dominate that arena, until it was clear they had a way to trump everything that was available or likely to be developed based on those existing products.

When the time is right? Yes, instead of offering an innovative and interesting new product with all kinds of potential 3rd party support and things to look forward to, let's offer the same old product that didn't sell before for a somewhat lower price, take away all internal storage so it's even less useful in some areas, ignore ALL previous customer suggestions (say 1080p?) and hope it sells anyway. Then we'll hint that SOME DAY maybe we'll offer something useful or interesting to consumers IF we sell a whole boat load of them, which we won't because it's uninteresting and out of date just like the last version that didn't sell for squat. :rolleyes:

Sometimes I TRULY wonder how Steve ever got where he did. He'll show all this innovation in some areas like the iPhone but then appear to be Forrest Gump when it comes to something that's actually pretty simple like home theater products (i.e. offer the best quality and state of the art features for a reasonable price offering all the conveniences of the best products that already exist).

For example, if Apple TV had 1080p from the start, a DECENT sized hard drive (even if that meant making SLIGHTLY bigger to fit a 3.5" hard drive; imagine THAT!?!) contained a DVR and Blu-Ray drive with support to convert them to be stored in iTunes automatically (like they do for CDs; a license would make this possible), had a front panel display that at least had a CLOCK on it (rather than just a little led light that does squat) and maybe even display title/artist information so you can see what's playing music-wise when the TV is turned off and don't have to wear out your projector bulb just to see a flipping album cover endlessly...or perhaps offer a cool visualizer to watch while you listen? What's THAT?!? :rolleyes: ), put in place the ability to add features like Netflix support, etc. as they become available (i.e. give the thing proper hardware assisted video decoding) and supported ALL the available formats so you can watch your home movies etc. without having to convert them to M4V and left provisions in place for gaming (and included a "remote" that could be used for gaming ala the "wii") and offered it for around $500, MAYBE just MAYBE the thing would have actually SOLD because it would have the potential to replace most of the home theater gear out there (just add receiver and TV).

THAT is what it would take to be as innovative as an iPhone. Apple TV should be a general purpose computing device with slick controls that can be upgraded to do just about anything you'd want it to do, whether it be a DVR or a cookbook display for the TV in the kitchen/dining room. If it had the proper connections (e.g. input video as well as output it) and the right hardware inside (hardware assisted encoding/decoding) with enough room to store apps/videos/movies (1.5TB 3.5" drives and larger are DIRT CHEAP for goodness sake!), it could do for TV what the iPhone did for smart phones. But no, some of those things MIGHT cannibalize iTunes music/movie sales, so we cannot include them! Never mind that we claim we do not make much profit from selling those sorts of things. We simply CANNOT offer a user-friendly do-everything type device because we want to sell SD 480p movies with low-quality video encoding and Dolby Pro Logic 2-channel sound to people that don't think there is anything better.... :rolleyes:

Predictions for Steve Jobs

Autumn 2010 : Apple announces quarterly results which show a 50 Billion Dollar revenue / 20 Billion Dollar profits trajectory. The analysts revise their expectations ..

Spring 2011 : after the iPad, the iPhone (now 5) is introduced in China, and generates hysteria, as well as a specific Verizon CDMA model for the US. The competitors announce models "soon to come", but fail to materialize ... Analysts revise their expectations again..

The analysts start to realize that instead of the iPad (now sold at more than three million per month) cannibalizing the Macs, each product or service of the Apple ecosystem strengthens each other, and that Apple is eating up every year a percentage of the huge PC market share. They revise their expectations accordingly ..


Autumn 2012 : Apple reinvents the watch: iWatch (human skin surface currents being used to transmit information to earphones. At that time, rumors already circulated that Apple was secretly working on a way to convey the audio information directly to the brain. Other rumors from sources (which insisted to remain unidentified) also speculated that Apple was working on the most secret project of its history (code name Wozniak), aiming at implementing a neuronal version of the iOS into the human brain (the only minor remaining technical difficulty being to implement into the human brain a 5.1 encoded audio information into the human brain).


Summer 2011 : Steve Jobs announces that a few billion Dollars out of Apple's cash will be used to launch Apple's largest private satellite constellation (this representing a tiny proportion of Apple's total cash). TV broadscasters feel uncomfortable ..

Spring 2012 : Apple reinvents the TV : iTV (British shareholders of ITV, the managers of which had previously expressed irritation about the use of this acronym, enthusiastically accept Apple's generous offer). The TV broadcasting industry understand that its destiny is sealed, and consists in being cut into tiny bits...

Summer 2013 : Apple reinvents the credit card : Steve announces that the iPhone now fully possesses credit card capabilities (with of course sophisticated authentication capabilities, and added value services for budget management, etc ...), and announces the creation of the Apple iBank. Although Banking companies publicly minimize the announcement, they infact are terrorized, as they know that Apple's gigantic cash makes this situation very dangerous for them.


Spring 2014 : the Apple profits have now jumped to the incredible amount of 40 Billion Dollars a year, turning Apple shares into the largest stock among any companies in the world (beyond Exxon Mobil or Petrochina). Analysts again revise their expectations ..

Summer 2014 : Apple chief financial Officer (R Oppenheimer) manages to convince Steve that the only way to reduce Apple's enormous cash (on which the US government is starting to look at in a somewhat threatening way) would be to distribute a dividend to the shareholders. The Apple share skyrockets again ..

Spring 2015 : Apple acquires Intel. The analysts ...


Apple competitors feel increasingly worried, and find no way to navigate safely through the mine fields of Apple patents (the Lawyers department of Apple has grown up to ten thousand of people, becoming the first department of the company). Sadly for them, they have no hope to expect from the antitrust authorities, since Apple, not being he dominant player in any of its markets, due to its vertical integration model, is out of reach.


Following IBM's historical example, PC suppliers quit one by one the PC market, into which they have no hope to make any decent profit (especially since the competition on prices has become even tougher, as the Windows market share shrinks ..).


Microsoft is in trouble.. (Especially since Steve's pitbull buddy Larry Ellison has successfully sued Google and Microsoft companies about Java (plus various other things), has aggressively and successfully promoted Open Office against Microsoft Office, and engaged a strategic partnership with Apple very dangerous for Microsoft in the professional business market.

Steve Ballmer is fired. Apple uses the old Microsoft video of the "iPhone4 funerals" (pathetic episode, inconcievable for such a large company) to celebrate the news. Dell runs out of business (and distributes the money to its shareholders (who immediately buy Apple shares with it).


Spring 2015 : Steve announces that from now on, the Apple enormous cash + the revenues driven from immaterial content (advertising, music, films, newspapers ..) enable the company to distribute its electronic consumer products for free


Autumn 2016 : in a keynote which will forever remain in the anthology, Steve Jobs reveal that Apple reinvents the car : iCar (yes, it is a mobile device, too …). the automotive industry is terrorized ...


Summer 2019 : the «*water party*» candidate to the US Presidency (tea party follow up, even more aggressive republican sect (yes, it is possible ...)) announces Apple's dismantling in case he/she is elected. Steve Jobs is successfully (without any campaign, as the other candidates withdraw for him) designated as Democrat candidate to the election.

2020 : Apple reinvents the Presidency of the United States :Steve Jobs is elected president of the United States (reachhing majority of votes in all states, including Texas), but insists for its salary to be one dollar / year only (first iPresident of the United States).

At that time, Steve's popularity is so great that most American people convert to Zen Buddhism, and are no longer interested in profit making. The National Riffle Association (NRA) turns itself into the National reconciliation Association, and now promotes non-violence. Apple Stores throughout the world (even China agrees) are converted with little modifications into Zen Buddhist temples (the Logo stays, the tables and Apple products are removed, the Genius bar employees are trained to become spiritual advisors).

2030 : Apple reinvents the religion : after a carreer as a business man & a politician, Steve Jobs reaches the final (and probably the most successful) accomplishment of his life in being a religious leader. Flying throughout the world with his Gulfstream, he preaches successfully Zen Buddhism in climate of religious fervor which cannot be described, and manages to convert very unlikely disciples (such as Arnold Schwarzenegger & Larry Ellison (who decides to give his entire fortune to charity funds, and to spend the rest of his life in the street of San Francisco as a beggar)).

2031 : after a second unsuccessful liver transplantation, Steve Jobs dies. Like Prometheus (who, according to ancient Greek Mythology, was condemned to have his liver perpetullay destroyed and then regenerated, for having stolen the fire from the Olympus, and having given it to the human), Steve Jobs, after having given the Mac to the human, therefore had similar destiny.

I, umrk, simple mortal, hereby testify in the front of Heaven that this is the true, complete and unaltered record of the prophecy that the Orbe of time transmitted to my iPad on the Patmos island (Sorry, no, I was unable to trace back the IP address of the sender ...). May Heaven grant me to live long enough to see the fulfilment of this prophecy !!!!

I see the cheerleaders are at it again with anti-1080 justifications, etc.

A 1080p :apple:TV would play 720p iTunes content to it's fullest. Hardware overkill is always good for lessor need software. The "720p is good enough" crowd would get every bit of the same experience on 1080p hardware; it just doesn't work the other way.

A 1080p :apple:TV wouldn't force 1080p content into iTunes, any more than tethering capabilities in iPhones forced AT&T to offer tethering, or grand central in OS-X forced all software coders to use it. For years now our iPods have been able to play lossless format; but that hardware capability didn't force lossless into the store, nor jettison lower, more compressed variations of AAC. The content does not have to come before- or with- the hardware; the hardware must come first. Why? Until there's lots of 1080:apple:TVs in homes, there is NO MOTIVATION to test 1080p :apple:TV content rentals/sales in the iTunes store. They could put a bunch of 1080p content for :apple:TV up tonight for all the established :apple:TV owners; but since none of us could play it, that test would completely fail.

On the other hand, pump a ton of 1080:apple:TVs into homes so that it is a real competitor for BD (on the most important benefit- picture quality), and some Studio's greed will motivate them to come to Apple hat in hand wanting to test content beyond the limited incarnation of 720p

Arguments about bandwidth limitations, file sizes, etc are all poor excuses. Those that don't have the bandwidth or can't store the bigger files can download the smaller files. Else, maybe Apple should do away with 720p too so that we can more quickly download the SD versions. Or maybe they should do away with the SD versions because we could download 320 x 200 even faster than the SD versions, and they are much smaller files. The point is that all of these arguments are "to each his own". If someone has the bandwidth (or the patience) and the storage, why NOT let them also be motivated to buy an :apple:TV for THEIR OWN NEEDS, rather than Apple arbitrarily deciding for them? Is it better for you or Apple for them to instead buy a 1080BD player because they want maximum picture quality?

1080p instead of 720p hardware would not add lots of cost to the new :apple:TV. We can easily see other, comparable set-top boxes with 1080p hardware inside, selling for higher and lower prices than $99. If these other companies can do it, so can Apple. And I would bet that if we could poll all "1080p or bust" people right now, the majority of them would welcome a "pro" version with 1080p for $149 or $199 and not blink (quality hounds are less price sensitive than those who argue for less-than-maximum quality).

Arguments about uncompressed 1080p files sizes being ridiculously large vs. Apple 720p being "just right" seems to always leave out that Apple's 720p is heavily compressed (and only 30fps MAX compared to THE HD standard at 60fps). If we're going to be satisfied with the compression applied to Apple's 720p, we need to consider it vs. the same compression applied to 1080p, not compare heavily compressed 720p vs. uncompressed 1080p and imply crazy storage requirements. YES, a comparably compressed 1080p movie file is still going to be bigger- sometimes a lot bigger- than the Apple 720p version. But, in exchange, we're getting higher picture quality if we want it (if we don't want it, we can download the smaller 720p or smaller still SD version). Nobody loses.

Arguments about "9X% can't see the difference" would also apply to everything else that Apple makes...

* 9X% aren't close to maxing out their processors, so Apple shouldn't bother putting better processors in Macs?
* 9X% don't use tethering/MMS in iPhones, so Apple shouldn't have built in such features?
* 9X% don't come close to taxing better graphics cards in Macs, so Apple shouldn't put better graphics cards in their computers?
* 9X% aren't using iDevice multitasking, so why bother putting that in?
* 100% of iPad users aren't using cameras or facetime, so why bother putting that in?
* Etc.

The point again is that in the hardware vs. software race, the hardware always has to lead. You have to deliver the hardware capable of something for the software players to "catch up". If you don't deliver hardware capabilities, there's no purpose in the software catching up.

Arguments about there being no 1080p content in TV now is irrelevant for the same reason. First you have to install the hardware to motivate the content creators to support the format. Roll out a 1080p :apple:TV now and it can soon and/or immediately take advantage of:

* select youtube videos
* HD camcorder video shot in 1080p
* vodcasts formatted for 1080p
* BD collections ripped as 1080p
* 1080 movie trailers on Apple's own website

Allow some app development, and we could also tap into >720p content from sources like VUDU and others, 1080p video-on-demand, etc. As the popularity of the hardware grows, more and more software will show up to feed the hunger. That's how it always is.

Get lots of units in place and some Studio will want to test whether that quality of content will sell- in spite of the bigger file size, in spite of download bandwidth issues, in spite of _______________, etc. Don't get any 1080p units in place and it is IMPOSSIBLE FOR THEM TO TEST market demand for 1080p content for this device.

Bottom line is this: contrary to the cheerleading, there is no downside for anyone if Apple would have rolled this out with 1080p hardware. Everyone- whether they're in the "720p is good enough" camp or the "1080p or bust" camp would be able to get what they want. And Apple would sell more units to ready buyers from both camps.

All the same old justifications from one camp won't convince the other to buy into an idea that 720p max is going to look good enough on their 1080p HDTVs. On the other hand, EVERYONE could have gotten what they wanted in the hardware had it rolled out at 1080p. You win. "They" win. Apple wins.

But the thing is, it's almost a given that the hardware can already do 1080p... Watch for a firmware update.

My iPhone 3gs can playback 1080p H264. It's just not advertised.

And you support that conclusion HOW exactly? Oh that's right. You just made it up. There's a freaking shock. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

It's more like they would NOT ALLOW a Blu-Ray ripper to be sold to the general public. OTOH, they MIGHT allow a secure BD ripping device if the results were also watermarked/protected for secure home use only. Such devices were created for DVD and perfectly LEGAL so spare me the BS you're making up off the top of your head about it could never happen.



The point is that with storage (at 1.5TB selling for <$99, don't tell me it's too expensive to include) it could simply be an *APP*. How would a free app be a deal breaker? You could simply choose not to use it. Besides, the number of people I see that WANTED one when the last ATV came out greatly outnumbered those that said they would not buy one if it was included. My cable box has a DVR, but its internal hard drive is only around 40GB. You cannot expand it yourself. I'd LOVE to have an ATV with a 2TB drive that has a DVR function. I could store dozens of HD movies and TV shows and not worry about them getting bumped. Would I want to buy a separate box (Tivo?) to do this? No, but if all I had to do was connect a 2TB external drive for around $100, I'd do it in heartbeat. You wouldn't? I couldn't care less what YOU do, but I believe plenty of others would like that flexibility if it didn't cost much. Even the new ATV has a USB port on it. Apple could easily enable for external storage if they chose. But they would have had to include some form of input to offer such functions. It would have added little to the price and could have been used for apps to transfer other mediums as well (home videos on VHS, older camcorders, etc.)



Neither do I, but I do store PHOTOS because I don't care for a 2 second load time when they can come up instantly locally (besides iTunes won't stream photos from the main library on the 1st gen ATV). But that does mean that even my 40GB ATV could have acted as a DVR if they had bothered since almost all of that space is available for use.



You obviously are completely and without a doubt CLUELESS to even make such a statement. I'm talking about a box that is also a Blu-Ray player/Ripper/DVR/Game machine and you're talking about the 1st Generation ATV.... :rolleyes: Go look up what a good quality Blu-Ray player alone costs. I'd gladly pay $500 for the device I'm talking about because it would replace most of my home theater (add receiver and you're done). I already bought two 1st Gen ATV units ($600 total) and one isn't even used for video most of the time. You talk like that's too much money when most Apple users fork out $1500+ every other year for a new iMac or $2000+ for a new MBP and think nothing of it. My cost schemes are based on Apple margins, not 3rd party companies. $500 would be cheap for Apple. The Mac Mini is $700 MINIMUM now and STILL doesn't even have a BD drive.

But if price was the ONLY reason why ATV didn't sell, then these new $99 units should sell like HOTCAKES. I'm betting in their current form they will not because they lack new features (other than Airstream and Netflix) and don't do 1080p nor does iTunes support (let alone the new ATV work with) HD movie sales. This is purely a rental device. The new XBMC player box has much better potential.



Even Blu-Ray is compressed guy.



You don't seem to understand compression at all based on the totality of your post. You keep talking about bit-rates and quality loss, etc., but you don't look ONE BIT at the METHODS being used for the compression! DVD uses MPEG2 for goodness sake! It's CRAP. M4V is H264. You don't need a 5GB movie file to get "DVD quality" with H264! 2GB is more than sufficient for DVD quality. Similarly, BD is OVERKILL on the light compression front. You can get a BD compressed MKV file that is 5-8GB that indistinguishable from the original under 95% of displays and the lack of head-to-head still comparisons. But I guarantee that 1080p at that rate is still going to look better than a 2.5GB 720P file!



If you think that going from 1920x1080 to 1280x720 is a "small change" in resolution, no wonder you're confused. The difference is large enough that you can fit a 16x9 DVD signal in between the two!



If you think ATV is "barely DVD quality" you are BLIND. Again, learn the difference between MPEG2 and H264 (PLEASE do it; you are stating NONSENSE and have obviously never even seen an ATV HD movie! I've got a top-notch 720P projector and watch both 720p and 480p movies on my 93" screen and it's night and day!)

I'll leave the rest of your pointless post alone sense it's based on faulty assumptions about encoding methods and the amount of data needed to achieve a clean signal.

You hit it man out of the park...but one more thing.....

The new apple tv will be successful because it is cheap in price and has the apple A4 chip...$99 is like almost the cheapest apple product there is besides the Ipod Shuffle. People are gonna snap up the Apple TV like no tomorrow. It will sell out for sure, once they realize who awesome it is when using airplay. Everybody has a Ipod, Iphone and Ipad and a HDTV will get an Apple TV just for the Airplay feature. And once apple makes a cool ass commercial...its all over.

$99 man.....$99....Its gonna be the hottest thing this Xmas....and it it can stream apps....oh look out!

Like the article says; it'll be interesting to see if the ATV comes with a reasonable amount of flash memory (16/32/64gb) like the iPhone et al... If it does it'll be a sign they're planning on including app download at some stage!

Much more likely to be 4 gigs or so.

The aTV *NEEDS* storage, simply to operate. It runs iOS, iOS needs a half to whole gig in root and another half to whole gig in the data area. In other words, it's going to have at least 1 to 2 gigs simply not to be a nonfunctional demo doorstop.

It will have a 4 or possibly 8 gigabyte chip inside. There is no reason whatsoever for a 16, apps are *NOT* that big. Not even written for 720p. Apple isn't stupid, they don't put huge great big quantities of flash in something that in all likelihood will never use it.

When the time is right? Yes, instead of offering an innovative and interesting new product with all kinds of potential 3rd party support and things to look forward to, let's offer the same old product that didn't sell before for a somewhat lower price, take away all internal storage so it's even less useful in some areas, ignore ALL previous customer suggestions (say 1080p?) and hope it sells anyway. Then we'll hint that SOME DAY maybe we'll offer something useful or interesting to consumers IF we sell a whole boat load of them, which we won't because it's uninteresting and out of date just like the last version that didn't sell for squat. :rolleyes:

Sometimes I TRULY wonder how Steve ever got where he did. He'll show all this innovation in some areas like the iPhone but then appear to be Forrest Gump when it comes to something that's actually pretty simple like home theater products (i.e. offer the best quality and state of the art features for a reasonable price offering all the conveniences of the best products that already exist).

For example, if Apple TV had 1080p from the start, a DECENT sized hard drive (even if that meant making SLIGHTLY bigger to fit a 3.5" hard drive; imagine THAT!?!) contained a DVR and Blu-Ray drive with support to convert them to be stored in iTunes automatically (like they do for CDs; a license would make this possible), had a front panel display that at least had a CLOCK on it (rather than just a little led light that does squat) and maybe even display title/artist information so you can see what's playing music-wise when the TV is turned off and don't have to wear out your projector bulb just to see a flipping album cover endlessly...or perhaps offer a cool visualizer to watch while you listen? What's THAT?!? :rolleyes: ), put in place the ability to add features like Netflix support, etc. as they become available (i.e. give the thing proper hardware assisted video decoding) and supported ALL the available formats so you can watch your home movies etc. without having to convert them to M4V and left provisions in place for gaming (and included a "remote" that could be used for gaming ala the "wii") and offered it for around $500, MAYBE just MAYBE the thing would have actually SOLD because it would have the potential to replace most of the home theater gear out there (just add receiver and TV).

THAT is what it would take to be as innovative as an iPhone. Apple TV should be a general purpose computing device with slick controls that can be upgraded to do just about anything you'd want it to do, whether it be a DVR or a cookbook display for the TV in the kitchen/dining room. If it had the proper connections (e.g. input video as well as output it) and the right hardware inside (hardware assisted encoding/decoding) with enough room to store apps/videos/movies (1.5TB 3.5" drives and larger are DIRT CHEAP for goodness sake!), it could do for TV what the iPhone did for smart phones. But no, some of those things MIGHT cannibalize iTunes music/movie sales, so we cannot include them! Never mind that we claim we do not make much profit from selling those sorts of things. We simply CANNOT offer a user-friendly do-everything type device because we want to sell SD 480p movies with low-quality video encoding and Dolby Pro Logic 2-channel sound to people that don't think there is anything better.... :rolleyes:

While the geek crowd would cheer, it would still be at a pricepoint where consumers would roll their eyes at the device. Consumers make up more of the buying numbers of devices than the geek crowd ever will. Apple isn't dumb here and putting a $99 device that competes well with other $99 devices like Roku will put Apple ahead. Or did you miss where everyone is laughing at BoxeeBox right now, primarily because of price despite doing all that you said above?