Apple Predicted to Beat Expectations in Third Quarter on Strong iPhone Sales and Growth in China

Less than one week before Apple's third quarter fiscal results are released on July 21 at 2:00 PM Pacific, multiple research firms and analysts have released earnings previews for the three-month period ending June 30. The consensus is that Apple will report another quarterly earnings beat based on stronger than expected iPhone sales and continued year-over-year growth in China.

iPhone 6 Side
Apple provided third quarter guidance of revenue between $46 billion and $48 billion, gross margin between 38.5% and 39.5%, operating expenses between $5.65 billion and $5.75 billion and other expenses of $350 million, while the consensus among analysts was an EPS of $1.79. Apple is expected to beat both that guidance, which is purposefully conservative, and street expectations.

Wall Street and Silicon Valley analyst Neil Cybart published his 3Q15 earnings preview on Above Avalon, predicting Apple earned $50.9 billion revenue, with a gross margin of 40.9% and $1.97 earnings per share (EPS), based on sales of 49.3 million iPhones, 10.1 million iPads, 4.9 million Macs, 4.3 million Apple Watches and $9.3 billion from other products and services.

Apple 3Q15 Above Avalon
Creative Strategies principal analyst Ben Bajarin estimates that Apple Watch worldwide sales were 4.7 million during the June quarter, topping the roughly 1.1 million iPhones and 3.3 million iPads sold in their respective launch quarters. Bajarin's estimate is based on supply chain output tracked by his market research firm, and is 400,000 units higher than Above Avalon's estimate.

Apple Q315 Creative Strategies
Apple has not publicly disclosed any official Apple Watch sales figures to date, and will be grouping the wrist-worn device under its "Other Products" category in quarterly earnings reports. The combined category includes sales of iPod, Apple TV, Beats Electronics and Apple-branded and third-party accessories, which will inevitably lead to predictions about how many Apple Watches make up the total units sold.

Investment banking company UBS also forecasts that Apple will have above-consensus earnings results based on a higher iPhone average selling price (ASP) estimate of $660 vs $636. The firm predicts Apple will report $52.5 billion revenue, with a gross margin of 40.9% and $2.00 EPS, based on sales of 51 million iPhones, 10.6 million iPads and 3 million Apple Watches.

UBS 3Q15 Apple
RBC Capital Markets is more conservative with its estimates, expecting that Apple will report $49.3 billion revenue, with a gross margin of 39.3% and $1.78 EPS, based on sales of 46.5 million iPhones, 11.3 million iPads and 4.6 million Macs. The firm did not estimate Apple Watch sales and expects scrutiny from investors in regards to Apple's iPhone unit sales globally, but particularly in China.

MacRumors will provide live coverage of Apple's third quarter results on July 21.

Tags: AAPL, Earnings

Popular Stories

Apple Shopping Event 2025

Apple Announces 2025 Black Friday Event, Here's What You Can Get

Thursday November 20, 2025 6:28 am PST by
Apple's annual four-day Black Friday through Cyber Monday shopping event is returning on Friday, November 28 through Monday, December 1 in many countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Thailand, and others. During the shopping event, customers can get an Apple gift card with...
iOS 26

Everything New in iOS 26.2 Beta 3

Monday November 17, 2025 3:20 pm PST by
Apple provided developers with the third beta of an upcoming iOS 26.2 update, and there are still new features that are being added with each beta that we get. We've rounded up all of the changes that Apple made in beta 3. AirDrop Apple added new AirDrop functionality, providing a way for two people to share files temporarily without having to add one another as contacts. iOS 26.2...
applecare apple care banner

Apple Brings New AppleCare+ Options to India

Tuesday November 18, 2025 8:42 am PST by
Apple today announced an expansion of AppleCare+ coverage in India, with new options for monthly and annual plans, and the addition of Theft and Loss for iPhone for the first time. Options for monthly and annual AppleCare+ plans in India provide more choice and flexibility, allowing users to keep coverage for as long as they require. Apple's vice president of Worldwide iPhone Product...
iPhone 17 Pro Cosmic Orange

10 Reasons to Wait for Next Year's iPhone 18 Pro

Wednesday November 19, 2025 4:00 am PST by
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models at the same time, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 18 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. One thing worth...
Apple Wallet ID Illinois

iPhone Driver's License Feature Launching in Illinois

Tuesday November 18, 2025 8:47 am PST by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. Starting this Wednesday, November 19, the feature will be available to residents of Illinois. The announcement confirmed that the...
ipad mini 7 feature red and blue

iPad Mini 8: Four Major New Features to Expect

Wednesday November 19, 2025 7:50 am PST by
Apple's eighth-generation iPad mini is highly likely to arrive next year, offering a significant refresh of the device with at least four major new features. OLED Display The next-generation version of the iPad mini could feature an OLED display, as part of Apple's plan to expand the display technology across many more of its devices. Apple's first OLED device was the Apple Watch in 2015, ...
iPhone 17 Pro and Air N1 Feature

iPhone 17 vs. iPhone 16 Wi-Fi Speeds: New Study Reveals the Winner

Tuesday November 18, 2025 10:53 am PST by
A new study has revealed that the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone Air achieve significantly faster average Wi-Fi speeds compared to the iPhone 16 series, thanks to Apple's custom-designed N1 chip. The study was conducted by Ookla, the company behind the popular Speedtest website and app. It said the results are based on global, crowdsourced Speedtest user data...
macbook black friday

The Best Early Black Friday Mac Deals

Tuesday November 18, 2025 7:32 am PST by
We're getting closer to Black Friday, which lands next week on Friday, November 28. In the lead-up to the shopping holiday, we're tracking a few lowest-ever prices on Apple's most popular Macs, including the M4 MacBook Air and brand new M5 MacBook Pro. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small payment,...
best early black friday deals

Best Black Friday Apple Deals Live Now - Save on AirPods, iPads, and Apple Watches

Saturday November 15, 2025 1:45 pm PST by
We're officially in the month of Black Friday, which will take place on Friday, November 28 in 2025. As always, this will be the best time of the year to shop for great deals, including popular Apple products like AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and more. In this article, the majority of the discounts will be found on Amazon. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When ...
Magic Keyboard Touch ID Feature

Apple Releases New Firmware for 140W USB-C Power Adapter, Magic Keyboard and Magic Trackpad

Tuesday November 18, 2025 1:05 pm PST by
Apple today released updated firmware for several accessories, including the 140W USB-C Power Adapter, the Magic Trackpad 2, the Magic Trackpad USB-C, the Magic Keyboard with Touch ID, and the Magic Keyboard with Touch ID and Numeric Keypad. There is no word on what's included in the updated firmware at this time, but it could offer performance improvements and security updates. Accessory...

Top Rated Comments

jonblatho Avatar
135 months ago
The Watch singlehandedly beat the iPhone and iPad launch quarters. What a flop!
Score: 20 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nando87 Avatar
135 months ago
If you expect to beat expectations then you're not beating expectations, that's absurd, pure oxymoron.
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Crzyrio Avatar
135 months ago
I never know how impressive to find statistics like this given that the success of the former products lead to more initial hype around the latter. Imagine how the sales of the iPhone would've been affected if the releases were: Watch-like thing in 2007, iPad in 2010, and iPhone in 2015.
Yeah and the comparison to the original iPhone launch is horrible considering it was only on one carrier in one country :P
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
cheesyappleuser Avatar
135 months ago
The Watch singlehandedly beat the iPhone and iPad launch quarters. What a flop!
Well, if you count iPad sales in Q1 also beat those of the iPhone, and count how badly the iPad is faring, I'd say long-term product sales are inversely proportional to the product's initial success. So, based in this (yes, I'm an analyst) I conclude the Apple Watch will be a flop.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
KPOM Avatar
135 months ago
Apple expected to beat expectations? That's no problem, let's just raise the expectations.
"Apple Expected to Beat Expectations" is oxymoronic. :)
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
sofila Avatar
135 months ago
The Watch singlehandedly beat the iPhone and iPad launch quarters. What a flop!
maybe since 2007 millions of new customers never had Apple products before and bought iPhones and/or iPads enlarging the "core base"? do you want to compare how many cars were sold in 1920 and in 2014 and say the Ford T was a huge flop compared to any Toyota Corolla?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)