U.S. Mac Demand Soft in January as Customers Wait for Updated Models

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is out with a new report today citing data from research firm NPD on U.S. sales of Macs. According to the data, Apple's U.S. Mac sales were up only 1% year-over-year in January, tracking behind predictions that have called for roughly 20% year-over-year growth for the full quarter. Munster believes, however, that continued strength in international markets and the potential for new Mac updates such as a refreshed MacBook Air near end of the quarter will likely help Apple close strongly to meet expectations.

We have analyzed domestic NPD retail data for the first month of the March quarter, which is up 1% y/y. The early data appears soft on a y/y basis; however, last quarter actual Mac growth outpaced NPD by 14 percentage points. Also, we believe Apple may launch new MacBook Airs as early as March. Net-net, we believe this early data suggests Mac sales in the range of 4.4m-4.6m, or 17%-22% y/y growth (we believe Street consensus is 4.5m Macs in the quarter and we are also at 4.5m).

With historical evidence showing overall growth outpacing NPD's U.S. data by 14 percentage points, Munster believes that Apple's actual worldwide Mac growth for January could be in the 15% range, close enough to the 20% target for the full quarter to give a Apple a reasonable chance at making up the difference with a strong finish.

mac lineup nov11
Piper Jaffray's independent data on iPhone sales for January are tracking toward full-quarter sales of 32-34 million, a figure that would help overcome any softness on the Mac side. iPod sales trends remain in line with predictions of continued declines as customers shift from the aging iPod line to iPhones and iPads.

Popular Stories

CarPlay Hero

Apple Releases Wireless CarPlay Fix

Wednesday April 16, 2025 11:28 am PDT by
If you have been experiencing issues with wireless CarPlay in your vehicle lately, it was likely due to a software bug that has now been fixed. Apple released iOS 18.4.1 today, and the update's release notes say it "addresses a rare issue that prevents wireless CarPlay connection in certain vehicles." If wireless CarPlay was acting up for you, updating your iPhone to iOS 18.4.1 should...
AirPods Pro 3 Mock Feature

AirPods Pro 3 Just Months Away – Here's What We Know

Friday April 18, 2025 5:16 am PDT by
Despite being more than two years old, Apple's AirPods Pro 2 still dominate the premium wireless‑earbud space, thanks to a potent mix of top‑tier audio, class‑leading noise cancellation, and Apple's habit of delivering major new features through software updates. With AirPods Pro 3 widely expected to arrive in 2025, prospective buyers now face a familiar dilemma: snap up the proven...
iphone 16 pro models 1

17 Reasons to Wait for the iPhone 17

Thursday April 17, 2025 4:12 am PDT by
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models simultaneously, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 17 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect from Apple's 2025 smartphone lineup. If you skipped the iPhone...
Beyond iPhone 13 Better Triad

Apple's 20th Anniversary iPhone May Finally Go All Screen

Tuesday April 15, 2025 6:31 am PDT by
Apple is preparing a "bold" new iPhone Pro model for the iPhone's 20th anniversary in 2027, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. As part of what's being described as a "major shake-up," Apple is said to be developing a design that makes more extensive use of glass – and this could point directly to the display itself. Here's the case for Apple releasing a truly all-screen iPhone with no...
maxresdefault

iPhone 17 Pro Launching Later This Year With These 12 New Features

Sunday April 13, 2025 7:52 am PDT by
While the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are not expected to launch until September, there are already plenty of rumors about the devices. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models as of April 2025: Aluminum frame: iPhone 17 Pro models are rumored to have an aluminum frame, whereas the iPhone 15 Pro and ...
iOS 19 Roundup Feature

iOS 19 Will Add These New Features to Your iPhone

Tuesday April 15, 2025 7:37 am PDT by
The first iOS 19 beta is less than two months away, and there are already a handful of new features that are expected with the update. Apple should release the first iOS 19 beta to developers immediately following the WWDC 2025 keynote, which is scheduled for Monday, June 9. Following beta testing, the update should be released to the general public in September. Below, we recap the key...
tvOS 18 Thumb 1

Apple Releases tvOS 18.4.1

Wednesday April 16, 2025 10:04 am PDT by
Apple today released tvOS 18.4.1, a minor update to the tvOS 18 operating system that came out last September. tvOS 18.4.1 comes two weeks after Apple released tvOS 18.4, and it is available for the Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD models. tvOS 18.4.1 can be downloaded using the Settings app on the ‌Apple TV‌. Open up Settings and go to System > Software Update to get the new software....
iPhone Security Feature 25

Five iPhone Security Features You Should Be Using

Wednesday April 16, 2025 4:15 pm PDT by
Apple has quite a few security features that it's added to iPhones, iPads, and Macs over the years. Now more than ever, it's important to make sure you're taking advantage of the built-in security tools that are available to keep yourself and your data safe, so we've rounded up a list of the most important options. If you don't already have these enabled, you might want to consider turning...
vision air cable

Images of Apple 'Vision Air' Power Cable Emerge Online

Thursday April 17, 2025 5:55 am PDT by
More images of a redesigned power cable allegedly for a future Apple "Vision Air" headset were today shared online by the prototype collector and leaker known as "Kosutami." Yesterday, the leaker explained that the Apple "Vision Air" will feature a thinner design and switch the battery enclosure and several of its internal structures to titanium to reduce the device's overall weight. Most of ...

Top Rated Comments

MetalMoon Avatar
172 months ago
yeah, I feel bad for those people waiting for that Mac Pro update.
Score: 29 Votes (Like | Disagree)
SchneiderMan Avatar
172 months ago
Simple - everyone already owns a Mac. Boom - I'm now an analyst too!
Score: 21 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jontech Avatar
172 months ago
Give me some Mac Pro love!


I got my credit card ready and a good home to give it!!
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Ciclismo Avatar
172 months ago
I'm not waiting for a new iMac. No siree, I'm not a sad, sad individual who checks the Mac Rumors buyers guide for the latest gossip on a potential iMac refresh, I swear. It's not like I am counting the days since the last refresh...294 days to be exact, in case you were wondering...
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
ZZ Bottom Avatar
172 months ago
I think the MacBookPro 13" is gone and done. I don't know of anyone with one.

I think what you'll see is the the 11-13" is going to be the Mac Air and the 15"-17" will be the Mac Book Pro or Mac Air Pro.

Oh your right! You don't know of anyone with a 13" MBP so they must be collecting dust on the shelves... or perhaps you could take a walk on a college campus. You see more 13" MBPs than 15/17s or MBAs by far.
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
LimeiBook86 Avatar
172 months ago
The age of the Mac Pro is more than embarrassing at this point... I'm very glad I didn't wait around and went for a fully-loaded 27-inch iMac. :)
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)